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IntroductionWith the COVID-19 pandemic, hospitals in low-income countries were faced with a triple challenge. First, a large number of patients required hospitalization because of the infections more severe symptoms. Second, there was a lack of systematic and broad testing policies for early identification of cases. Third, there were weaknesses in the integration of information systems, which led to the need to search for available information from the hospital information systems. Accordingly, it is also important to state that relevant aspects of COVID-19s natural history had not yet been fully clarified. The aim of this research protocol is to present the strategies of a Brazilian network of hospitals to perform systematized data collection on COVID-19 through the World Health Organization (WHO) Platform. Methods and AnalysisThis is a multicenter project among Brazilian hospitals to provide data on COVID-19 through the WHO global platform, which integrates patient care information from different countries. From October 2020 to March 2021, a committee worked on defining a flowchart for this platform, specifying the variables of interest, data extraction standardization and analysis. Ethics and DisseminationThis protocol was approved by the Research Ethics Committee (CEP) of the Research Coordinating Center of Brazil (CEP of the Hospital Nossa Senhora da Conceicao), on January 29, 2021, under approval No. 4.515.519 and by the National Research Ethics Commission (CONEP), on February 5, 2021, under approval No. 4.526.456. The project results will be explained in WHO reports and published in international peer-reviewed journals, and summaries will be provided to the funders of the study. Strengths and limitations of this studyAs the study involves a convenience and non-probabilistic sample of patients hospitalized in health units, it may not represent the population of patients with COVID-19 hospitalized in the country. However, the information generated by this research can serve as a basis for the development of maps of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 infection and public policies to face pandemics. It is a study that uses secondary data, and therefore, information bias may occur, but on the other hand, it has a low cost and facilitates a population-based study with national coverage. Article SummaryThis is a multicenter project among Brazilian hospitals to provide data on COVID-19 through the WHO global platform. It is expected to deepen knowledge about the pandemic scenario and help hospital institutions to develop preventive measures, health service protocols and strengthen the training of teams in the existing complications.
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ObjectiveTo develop and validate a rapid scoring system at hospital admission for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19), and to compare this score with other existing ones. DesignCohort study SettingThe Brazilian COVID-19 Registry has been conducted in 36 Brazilian hospitals in 17 cities. Logistic regression analysis was performed to develop a prediction model for in-hospital mortality, based on the 3978 patients that were admitted between March-July, 2020. The model was then validated in the 1054 patients admitted during August-September, as well as in an external cohort of 474 Spanish patients. ParticipantsConsecutive symptomatic patients ([≥]18 years old) with laboratory confirmed COVID-19 admitted to participating hospitals. Patients who were transferred between hospitals and in whom admission data from the first hospital or the last hospital were not available were excluded, as well those who were admitted for other reasons and developed COVID-19 symptoms during their stay. Main outcome measuresIn-hospital mortality ResultsMedian (25th-75th percentile) age of the model-derivation cohort was 60 (48-72) years, 53.8% were men, in-hospital mortality was 20.3%. The validation cohorts had similar age distribution and in-hospital mortality. From 20 potential predictors, seven significant variables were included in the in-hospital mortality risk score: age, blood urea nitrogen, number of comorbidities, C-reactive protein, SpO2/FiO2 ratio, platelet count and heart rate. The model had high discriminatory value (AUROC 0.844, 95% CI 0.829 to 0.859), which was confirmed in the Brazilian (0.859) and Spanish (0.899) validation cohorts. Our ABC2-SPH score showed good calibration in both Brazilian cohorts, but, in the Spanish cohort, mortality was somewhat underestimated in patients with very high (>25%) risk. The ABC2-SPH score is implemented in a freely available online risk calculator (https://abc2sph.com/). ConclusionsWe designed and validated an easy-to-use rapid scoring system based on characteristics of COVID-19 patients commonly available at hospital presentation, for early stratification for in-hospital mortality risk of patients with COVID-19. Summary boxesWhat is already known on this topic? O_LIRapid scoring systems may be very useful for fast and effective assessment of COVID-19 patients in the emergency department. C_LIO_LIThe majority of available scores have high risk of bias and lack benefit to clinical decision making. C_LIO_LIDerivation and validation studies in low- and middle-income countries, including Latin America, are scarce. C_LI What this study adds O_LIABC2-SPH employs seven well defined variables, routinely assessed upon hospital presentation: age, number of comorbidities, blood urea nitrogen, C reactive protein, Spo2/FiO2 ratio, platelets and heart rate. C_LIO_LIThis easy-to-use risk score identified four categories at increasing risk of death with a high level of accuracy, and displayed better discrimination ability than other existing scores. C_LIO_LIA free web-based calculator is available and may help healthcare practitioners to estimate the expected risk of mortality for patients at hospital presentation. C_LI
